Updated 20 October 2026. Spot gold traded near $4,120 an ounce on Tuesday 20 October, down about 0.6 percent (Kitco: $4,120.30 at 1:58 am ET; FX Leaders: $4,119.81). It closed Monday at $4,137.80, down $26.30 (Kitco). The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14 percent and Brent held near $110 as the Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi oil sites. Verdict: higher oil now means higher yields, and higher yields are beating the safe-haven bid. Reference levels: $4,030 below, $4,227 above.
Key facts
- Tuesday price: Kitco showed spot gold at $4,120.30 at 1:58 am ET, down $19.60 on the day. FX Leaders had it at $4,119.81, down 0.58 percent, after an intraday low of $4,115.10 (Arslan Ali Butt). Mitrade put it near $4,138 earlier in the morning.
- Monday close, 19 October: $4,137.80, down $26.30 (Kitco, via FX Leaders). Gold was rejected at $4,190.79 last week (FX Leaders).
- Yields: the 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 5.144 percent (FX Leaders). Mitrade also cited a stronger dollar.
- Fed odds: CME FedWatch shows about an 82 percent chance the Fed holds at its 27-28 October meeting and about an 89 percent chance of a December hike (Reuters, via FX Leaders).
- Oil: Brent settled at $109.55 on Monday and traded near $110 early Tuesday after the Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi energy sites (Reuters, FXEmpire).
- Buyers underneath: China’s central bank bought 23 tonnes in September, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, and central banks bought a net 39 tonnes in August (FX Leaders).
Why gold is falling today
On Monday gold got help from cheaper oil and a softer dollar, as we set out in Monday’s gold outlook. Both reversed within the day. Brent recovered from a $3 intraday drop to settle at $109.55, and the 10-year yield climbed to 5.14 percent.
That is the trade gold has followed for weeks. Oil near $110 keeps inflation high, high inflation keeps a December Fed hike priced at close to 90 percent, and yields above 5 percent raise the cost of holding a metal that pays nothing. Mitrade’s analysts also pointed to strong US data, including a 0.8 percent rise in September retail sales, and to a rebound in tech stocks drawing money away from gold.
Why the Gulf is not helping gold
Normally attacks on Saudi oil sites would send buyers into gold. This time the energy shock is the bigger force. The Houthis said they hit an Aramco facility in Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield on Monday, claims Saudi Arabia had not confirmed (Reuters). We cover the oil side in today’s Brent outlook.
The technical picture leans lower. FX Leaders’ Arslan Ali Butt notes gold trades below its 50-period moving average at $4,157 on the 4-hour chart, with RSI at 40. Mitrade sees the 1-hour RSI near 30-35, close to oversold, which leaves room for a bounce inside the range.
Gold this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $4,030 | Oil pushes higher on confirmed Saudi damage, the 10-year yield extends above 5.14 percent and gold breaks $4,076. | Support at $4,031 (FX Leaders) and $4,017-$4,040 (Mitrade). About 2.2 percent below Tuesday’s $4,120. |
| Base | $4,076-$4,191 | The Fed is in its pre-meeting blackout and oil holds near $107-$112. Gold trades yields and the dollar. | FX Leaders’ key support at $4,076 and last week’s rejection at $4,190.79. |
| Bull | $4,227 | Yields fall back below 5 percent, the dollar eases and gold clears $4,191 and the trendline. | The 200-period moving average at $4,227 (FX Leaders) and the top of Mitrade’s $4,215-$4,227 resistance band. |
The bear case sits below Tuesday’s price. The levels are technical reference points measured from the verified Tuesday quote, not price forecasts. Below $4,030, FX Leaders names $3,987, and Metals Focus sees strong structural support near $4,000 from central bank and institutional buying (Mitrade).
What to watch this week
- The 10-year yield: 5.14 percent is the number to watch. A move back below 5 percent would take pressure off gold.
- Oil and Saudi Arabia: whether Saudi authorities confirm damage at Yanbu and Shaybah, and whether Hormuz incidents continue.
- US data: weekly jobless claims and the preliminary S&P Global PMIs for October on Friday 23 October.
- 27-28 October: the FOMC decision. Markets expect a hold, with a December hike priced at about 89 percent. Read our Fed odds explainer for how the pricing moved after CPI.
Quick take: gold slipped about 0.6 percent to near $4,120 as the 10-year yield rose to 5.14 percent and Brent held near $110. Higher oil means higher yields, and that is outweighing safe-haven demand from the Gulf attacks. Expect $4,076-$4,191. Lower yields open $4,227. Confirmed Saudi damage and a new oil spike open $4,030.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold traded near $4,120 an ounce on Tuesday 20 October 2026, down about 0.6 percent (Kitco, FX Leaders). It closed Monday at $4,137.80.
Why is gold down today?
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14 percent and the dollar firmed. Oil near $110 keeps inflation high and supports expectations of a December Fed hike, which makes non-yielding gold less attractive.
Why isn’t gold rising on the Middle East attacks?
The attacks push oil higher, and higher oil pushes yields up. Right now that effect is stronger than the safe-haven demand. Central bank buying, including 23 tonnes by China in September, is supporting gold from below instead (FX Leaders).
Will the Fed raise rates in October?
Markets do not expect it. CME FedWatch shows about an 82 percent chance of a hold at the 27-28 October meeting and about an 89 percent chance of a hike in December (Reuters, via FX Leaders).
Where is support for gold?
$4,076 first, then $4,031 and $3,987 (FX Leaders). Metals Focus sees strong structural support near $4,000 (Mitrade).
Can gold get back above $4,200?
It would need to clear $4,157, last week’s $4,191 rejection and the 200-period moving average at $4,227 (FX Leaders). That most likely requires yields to fall back below 5 percent.
Sources: Kitco (spot gold quote, 1:58 am ET 20 October 2026; Monday close); FX Leaders, Arslan Ali Butt (spot, yields, CME FedWatch via Reuters, central bank purchases, technical levels, 20 October); Mitrade (morning quote, dollar, retail sales, support and resistance, Metals Focus view, 20 October); Reuters and FXEmpire (Brent, Houthi claims).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Precious-metal prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
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