The biggest takeaway from the College Football Playoff Committee’s first-round rankings was Notre Dame’s seven-spot slide from Sunday’s AP Poll. Media pundits all came away with the same message: if Notre Dame loses to Miami this week, they’ll be eliminated from playoff contention.
While I’d be happy to write off a Notre Dame team with its own special rules, I think we’re way too quick to make Saturday’s matchup an elimination game. For starters, if Notre Dame wins a game they’re favorited by seven points, this whole conversation is pointless. Two of their final three games after this week will be in South Bend, and their only road trip will take place in Syracuse. I don’t really see any more losses cooked into the schedule for them.
However, more than just winning and ending this conversation, I still think the Irish can make the playoffs with a win. For one, their current ranking still might be too high. They’re above multiple two-loss Big Ten and SEC teams that actually have ranked wins on their resume. Of course, another big-game loss could hurt them, but how far do they fall if they lose to the consensus best team in the nation?
Alabama is currently ranked 5th in the CFP rankings, and they’ve looked unimpressive outside an early-season win over Kentucky, a team that could easily finish the season with four losses. ESPN claimed Alabama’s ranking was due to their big win over Mississippi State. That same Bulldog squad that looked incompetent with or without Kamario Taylor in their lineup.
But for Notre Dame, the metrics still tend to favor them even without any impressive wins on their resume. They’re 11th in SOR, 1st in FPI, and 6th in Game control. As mentioned, they’re also -7 against the number-one team in the country. Even if Notre Dame loses, they can pick up a win against a solid SMU squad and could work their way back into the top-12 by season end.
The Big Ten and SEC have been cannibalizing each other at every turn this year, and that won’t change down the stretch. Unless the committee does something shocking, like dropping Notre Dame out of the top 20 with a loss, they’ll still be in the mix when the final polls drop. If they’re in the top 12, they get to make the playoffs because of their dumb rules. Maybe most importantly, after keeping the Irish out last season, you’ll see the powers at be doing everything they can to put one of the biggest TV markets into the playoffs.
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