Updated 30 July 2026 — SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed at $112.55 on Wednesday 29 July 2026, down 3.32% (−$3.86), per StockAnalysis. Market capitalisation is $1.48 trillion.
Verdict: the stock is 50.1% below its post-IPO peak and 16.6% below its $135 IPO price. Two dates now decide the next leg: 4 August, SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company, and 6 August, when up to 911.5 million insider shares become sellable.
KEY FACTS
- Spot: $112.55, down 3.32% on 29 July 2026. Market cap $1.48 trillion.
- IPO: 12 June 2026 at $135 per share — the largest IPO in US history, valuing SpaceX near $1.8 trillion at the listing price.
- Peak: $225.64 intraday on 16 June, four sessions after listing. The stock is 50.1% below that level.
- 52-week range: $107.01 – $225.64. Wednesday’s close sat 5.2% above the low.
- Losses: a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025, plus a further $4.28 billion in Q1 2026.
- First earnings: Q2 2026 results after the close on Tuesday 4 August 2026, webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET, per SpaceX’s own investor-relations notice.
- Lock-up: setting the earnings date triggered an early release allowing insiders to sell up to 20% of restricted holdings — 911.5 million shares — beginning 6 August.
- Street: average 12-month target $236.71, with a high estimate of $800 and a low of $62. Twenty-seven analysts rate it a buy, one a sell.
Why a $1.8 trillion listing lost half its value in six weeks
SpaceX did not break. Its share price normalised, violently, from a level set by scarcity rather than by earnings.
The listing on 12 June priced at $135 and immediately ran to $225.64 by 16 June. That peak was reached four sessions into public life, before a single quarterly report, on a float deliberately kept tight. Everything since has been the unwinding of that setup: profit-taking by IPO allocants, a reassessment of a valuation that briefly implied more than $1.8 trillion, and the reversal of the crowded bullish positioning built up around the most anticipated debut in years. The stock slipped below its IPO price in mid-July and has not reclaimed it.
The scale is easier to grasp in dollars than percentages. Since the June peak, SpaceX has shed more than $1 trillion in market value — a figure larger than the entire market capitalisation of all but a handful of listed companies.
The two dates that matter: 4 August and 6 August
SpaceX confirmed it will post second-quarter results after the market close on Tuesday 4 August, with a management webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET. This is the first time public shareholders will see the business as a reporting issuer rather than as a narrative.
What makes the calendar unusually loaded is the second date. Setting the earnings date triggered an early lock-up release: insiders may sell up to 20% of restricted holdings — 911.5 million shares — starting 6 August, two days after the print. That sequencing means a good report and a bad tape are not mutually exclusive outcomes. Supply arrives on a fixed schedule regardless of what the numbers say.
The bull case: the first real look at Starlink economics
The bull argument is not that SpaceX is cheap at a $1.48 trillion market capitalisation. It is that nobody yet knows what it is worth, because the operating disclosure has never been public.
Twenty-seven analysts rate the stock a buy against a single sell, with an average target of $236.71 — roughly double the current price and close to the June peak. That consensus is built on assumptions about launch cadence and, above all, Starlink’s subscriber economics and margin trajectory. On 4 August those assumptions become checkable. If the segment disclosure shows Starlink converting scale into contribution margin faster than modelled, the sell-side has an anchor for targets it currently holds on faith.
The lock-up cuts both ways too: a large, orderly increase in float is what turns a scarcity-priced stock into an index-eligible, institutionally ownable one.
The bear case: $9 billion of losses and 911.5 million shares
The bear case does not require anything to go wrong. It requires the arithmetic already on the record to keep applying.
SpaceX lost $4.9 billion in 2025 and a further $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone — a quarterly burn approaching the prior full year. At a $1.48 trillion valuation, the market is capitalising a business that is consuming cash at scale while spending heavily on Starship development and Starlink deployment.
Layer on the supply event. Up to 911.5 million shares become sellable on 6 August into a stock already 50% off its high, where every early holder above roughly $113 is under water on paper but every pre-IPO holder is not. That asymmetry is what makes the lock-up a genuine bear catalyst rather than a technicality.
The macro adds the third leg. The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% on 29 July but drew three dissenting votes in favour of a hike, sending the 30-year Treasury yield up 12 basis points to 5.21% — a 19-year high. SpaceX is the definition of a long-duration cash-flow story, and 5.21% is the rate at which those distant flows now get discounted.
Scenario table: bear, base and bull from $112.55
| Case | Level | vs $112.55 spot | Anchor and what has to happen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $62 | −45% | The lowest published street estimate. Requires the 4 August disclosure to show Starlink margins below model and the 6 August unlock to be used heavily. |
| First support | $107.01 | −4.9% | The 52-week low, set during this drawdown. The nearest technical marker, and the level a disappointing print tests first. |
| Base | $135 | +20% | The IPO price. Reclaiming it needs a clean first report and an unlock that is absorbed rather than dumped — the stock simply returning to where institutions bought it. |
| Bull | $236.71 | +110% | The consensus 12-month target, effectively a return to the $225.64 June peak. Needs Starlink disclosure to validate the sell-side model and the loss trajectory to visibly bend. |
The $800 high estimate is a genuine published figure but a clear outlier; the $62 low and $236.71 mean are the useful boundaries. A spread this wide — roughly 13x from low to high — is what coverage looks like before a company has ever reported.
What to watch in the 4 August report
- Starlink segment margin. The single most valuable number in the release. Subscriber counts are already estimated externally; contribution margin is not.
- The loss trend. Q1 2026’s $4.28 billion loss against $4.9 billion for all of 2025 is the figure the bear case rests on. Any deceleration changes the discussion.
- Starship cadence and capitalised spend. How much of the burn is development that eventually stops, versus operating cost that does not.
- Anything management says about the 6 August unlock. Signalling on insider intentions, or a voluntary extension, would materially change the two-week setup.
How this fits the rest of the listed space complex
SpaceX is now the sector’s benchmark, and its de-rating has drained multiple support from every smaller name. FinanceFeeds tracks the knock-on in Redwire’s bull and bear cases, Intuitive Machines and AST SpaceMobile. Our news coverage of the drawdown itself is here.
Quick Take
At $112.55, SPCX has already given back the entire IPO pop and then some. The bear case is the $9 billion of losses on the record plus 911.5 million shares becoming sellable on 6 August. The bull case is that the 4 August report is the first time anyone outside the company can price Starlink properly — and the consensus $236.71 target says the Street expects to like what it sees. Both cases resolve within the same two-week window, which is unusual and makes position sizing, not direction, the harder question.
FAQ
What is SpaceX’s stock price now?
SPCX closed at $112.55 on 29 July 2026, down 3.32% on the session, giving a market capitalisation of $1.48 trillion.
Why is SpaceX stock down so much since the IPO?
The stock listed at $135 on 12 June 2026 and ran to $225.64 by 16 June before reversing. The decline reflects profit-taking by IPO allocants, a reassessment of a valuation that implied more than $1.8 trillion, and the unwinding of crowded bullish positioning — not a specific operational failure. It has fallen more than $1 trillion in market value from the June peak.
When does SpaceX report earnings?
SpaceX will post second-quarter 2026 results after the market close on Tuesday 4 August 2026, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET. It is the company’s first report as a public company, and the date is confirmed on SpaceX’s own investor-relations site.
When does the SpaceX lock-up expire?
Setting the earnings date triggered an early lock-up release. Insiders may sell up to 20% of restricted holdings — 911.5 million shares — beginning 6 August 2026, two days after the earnings report.
What is the analyst price target for SPCX?
The average 12-month target is $236.71, with a high estimate of $800 and a low of $62. Twenty-seven analysts rate the stock a buy and one a sell.
Is SpaceX profitable?
No. SpaceX posted a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and a further $4.28 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026. Whether that burn is decelerating is the central question of the 4 August report.
What is the bear case for SpaceX stock?
A $1.48 trillion valuation on a business losing billions per quarter, a 911.5 million share insider unlock on 6 August, and a 30-year Treasury yield at a 19-year high of 5.21% compressing the value of distant cash flows. The lowest published street target is $62.
Sources: price, range and market-cap data from StockAnalysis (29 July 2026 close); earnings date and webcast time from SpaceX Investor Relations; lock-up release detail from CNBC; IPO pricing, peak and loss figures as reported by The Motley Fool and Quartz; FOMC decision and Treasury yields from CNBC.
This article is for information purposes only and is not financial advice. FinanceFeeds does not recommend buying or selling any security. Recently listed companies with unexpired lock-ups and no reporting history are especially volatile. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.
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