Updated 30 October 2026. Brent crude’s December contract, which expires on Friday, was up $1.20 or 1.04 percent at $116.08 a barrel at 3:23 am GMT, while the more active January contract was up $1.39 at $112.19 and WTI up $1.37 at $103.37 (Reuters). Brent is on track for a gain of nearly 11 percent in October, its fourth straight monthly rise. Verdict: Iran’s claim that tankers struck mines south of the Strait of Hormuz and a new small-boat attack on a tanker have put the risk premium back, a day after diplomacy pulled prices lower. Reference levels: $108 below, $120 above.
Key facts
- Price: Brent December $116.08 (+$1.20) at 3:23 am GMT on 30 October; Brent January $112.19 (+$1.39); WTI $103.37 (+$1.37) (Reuters). OilPriceAPI showed Brent at $116.54 at 6:21 am GMT.
- Expiry: the December Brent contract expires on Friday, so from Monday the headline Brent price will refer to January, which trades about $4 lower.
- The month: Brent is heading for a nearly 11 percent October gain and WTI about 14 percent, the fourth monthly rise in a row for both (Reuters).
- Mines: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said three tankers exploded and caught fire after hitting mines on a southern route around the Strait of Hormuz that Tehran treats as off-limits, one of them burning north of Khasab, Oman; Iran’s army reported a fourth vessel damaged east of the waterway. US Central Command rejected the claims and said the main transit routes had been cleared (Pomegra).
- Friday attack: a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by explosive devices reportedly attached by a small boat, according to UKMTO; the attacker was not identified (Reuters).
- Saudi Arabia: on Thursday the Houthis said they attacked Ras Tanura and Rabigh refineries and an Aramco facility at Abqaiq; a Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a cruise missile headed for the kingdom’s west (Reuters).
- Diplomacy: Iran’s Tasnim news agency said Tehran has received a letter from US Vice President JD Vance aimed at reviving talks but has not responded (Reuters).
From diplomacy back to danger
Thursday’s Brent move was driven by the Vance letter and the hope of a diplomatic path (see our Thursday Brent page). Friday’s is driven by the sea lanes. The mine claims are disputed – no maritime authority has independently confirmed Iran’s account and CENTCOM calls the routes clear – but the UKMTO report of a separate attached-explosive attack is not, and shipping insurers price risk on incidents, not on denials.
Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, pointed to “continued kinetic action around the Strait of Hormuz amidst doubts of a viable diplomatic pathway” as the reason prices are staying elevated (Reuters). Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen expects crude to hold a higher range of $70-$90 a barrel even after the conflict ends, against $60-$70 before the war, because of the risk of renewed hostilities and the need to rebuild inventories. He flagged Israel’s parliamentary election and the 3 November US midterm vote as sources of volatility in the next two weeks.
Exxon reports today
ExxonMobil releases third-quarter results at 5:30 am CT on Friday, with a call at 8:30 am ET (ExxonMobil). An 8-K filed ahead of the release flagged estimated timing effects of about negative $2.5 billion for the quarter, according to a results preview. Exxon and Chevron have also cancelled executive travel to the UAE’s largest oil show next week, citing security concerns (Reuters), a small but telling signal of how the majors read the Gulf risk.
Higher oil also matters beyond energy: it feeds the inflation data that has pushed December Fed hike odds to about 75 percent and gold below $4,000 (see our gold page for Friday).
Brent into the weekend: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $108 | Iran answers the Vance letter, CENTCOM’s account of clear routes holds and no new incident follows, and the price rolls onto the cheaper January contract. | About 7 percent below the $116.08 December quote and about 4 percent below January’s $112.19. |
| Base | $111-$118 | Incidents continue at the current pace without a full closure, and talks stay stalled. | January’s $112.19 to just above the latest December quotes of $116.08-$116.54. |
| Bull | $120 | A confirmed mine strike on a main transit route, or further Houthi damage to Saudi facilities, forces a wider halt in Gulf shipping. | About 3.4 percent above the December quote. |
The bear case sits below Friday’s price on both contracts. These are reference levels measured from the verified quotes, not forecasts.
What to watch
- The roll: December’s expiry means Monday’s Brent quote will read about $4 lower without any change in the market.
- UKMTO and CENTCOM: any independent confirmation, or denial, of the mine strikes.
- Tehran’s reply: a response to the Vance letter would be the first test of the diplomatic path.
- Exxon’s call: what management says about Gulf operations and production.
Quick take: Brent’s expiring December contract is near $116, up about 1 percent, with January at $112.19, as disputed mine claims and a confirmed small-boat attack around Hormuz put risk back into the price. Brent is set for a fourth monthly gain of nearly 11 percent. Expect $111-$118; $108 needs Tehran to answer the Vance letter, and $120 needs a confirmed hit on a main shipping route.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude oil price today?
Brent’s December contract was $116.08 a barrel at 3:23 am GMT on Friday 30 October 2026, up 1.04 percent; the January contract was $112.19 (Reuters).
Why is oil up today?
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said tankers hit mines near the Strait of Hormuz, UKMTO reported a separate attack on a tanker, and the Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi oil sites on Thursday. CENTCOM rejected the mine claims.
Why are there two Brent prices?
The December contract expires on Friday 30 October. The January contract, about $4 cheaper, becomes the benchmark from Monday.
How much has Brent risen in October?
Nearly 11 percent, on track for its fourth straight monthly gain; WTI is heading for about 14 percent (Reuters).
What is the WTI price today?
WTI was $103.37 a barrel early on Friday, up $1.37 (Reuters).
Where could oil settle after the conflict?
Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen expects a $70-$90 range even after the conflict ends, above the $60-$70 pre-war range.
Sources: Reuters via AsiaOne (Brent and WTI prices at 3:23 am GMT, monthly gains, UKMTO report, Houthi claims, Tasnim, Kavonic and Hansen comments, cancelled travel); OilPriceAPI (6:21 am GMT quote); Pomegra (IRGC and Iranian army mine claims, CENTCOM response); ExxonMobil investor relations (results timing).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
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