The Cleveland Guardians saved their season in Game 3’s 9-3 victory against the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday.
The Guardians started relief pitcher Daniel Espino as an opener, and it almost resulted in disaster. The rookie has only pitched 15 innings this season, but was quickly pulled in favor of veteran starter Foster Griffin.
For the first time this postseason, Cleveland’s offense came through. Scoring nine runs isn’t typical for the Guardians, who rely on dominant pitching and timely hitting to scrape together wins. On the other side, the White Sox lost Game 3 and missed an opportunity to end Cleveland’s season while keeping their remarkable story alive.
Game 4 MLB Best Betting Picks
But Chicago has Hagen Smith on the mound for Game 4, while the Guardians turn back to Parker Messick, who will likely finish third in American League Cy Young voting after a dominant rookie campaign.
The Guardians are slight favorites heading into Game 4. Kalshi, a popular prediction market that allows users to trade contracts of real-world outcomes like the MLB Playoffs, gives the Guardians a 52% chance of winning Game 4. The White Sox have a 49% chance of winning.
Messick is the better pitcher, regardless of this being his first road start in the postseason, and if Cleveland can score some runs against Smith’s White Sox, backing the favored GUARDIANS (-115) actually makes some sense.
The total for this game is set at 7.5 runs. Because of Cleveland’s inconsistent offense, paired with a dominant pitcher in Messick, we’ll avoid this number, but would lean UNDER 7.5 runs just because of the uncertainty regarding which version of the Guardians will show up.
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Guardians vs. White Sox Game 4 Props
Jo Adell Home Run (+570) would be an interesting longshot bet to make. The Guardians acquired the hard-hitting outfielder at the MLB trade deadline, desperate to add some pop into an anemic batting lineup.
Even though Jose Ramirez finally delivered in Game 3, Adell has been Cleveland’s most reliable hitter in the postseason, which is his first trip to October in his career. A .273 batting average with three hits, 4 RBIs, and two triples in three career postseason games is exactly what the Guardians hoped for when they acquired Adell from the Los Angeles Angels at the deadline. But if he can put the ball into the seats in a big moment? That would be the cherry on top.
To no surprise, White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami is Chicago’s best chance against Messick. In four career at-bats against Messick, Murakami is 1-for-4 with a home run and an RBI. Murakami to record a hit (-130) has enough value to include in a parlay, even if it doesn’t come until Cleveland’s bullpen eventually replaces Messick.
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