Oil traders spent Thursday repricing every new headline out of the Gulf, but prediction-market traders are still giving almost no chance that normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns by the end of September.
Brent settled September 24 at $106.60 a barrel, up 3.4%, while West Texas Intermediate gained 2.7% to $94.61. That was a sharp move from the $103.67 Brent price in FinanceFeeds’ September 24 look at the $74 million Kharg Island prediction market, published earlier that morning.
The new development came later Thursday, when Reuters reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York were exploring a phased agreement under which Tehran would reopen Hormuz and Washington would lift its economic blockade of Iran. The report arrived after crude had risen as much as about 5% on renewed supply fears following Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, and prices subsequently pulled back from those session highs.
The Deal Being Discussed Starts With Hormuz
Reuters cited two Iranian sources, two regional officials and two Western diplomatic sources in reporting that negotiators were examining a staged route out of the nearly seven-month conflict.
A senior Iranian official described the first stage as ending the U.S. blockade and reopening Hormuz, potentially alongside access to frozen Iranian assets. Reuters said neither side wants to surrender its principal source of leverage first: Washington controls the economic pressure on Iran, while Tehran controls access to the critical shipping route.
Bloomberg separately reported that Qatari officials were mediating the negotiations.
The discussions build on an Iranian offer first reported on Tuesday, September 22, rather than a new seven-day proposal made Thursday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that day that Tehran could reopen Hormuz within seven days if Washington eased military pressure and lifted its blockade on Iranian ports.
Iran’s position hardened again on Friday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on September 25 that the strait would remain closed until “all of Iran’s conditions are met” and said Tehran would make no concessions over its nuclear rights even if Washington accepted the Hormuz proposal.
Polymarket Has Nearly Written Off September 30
The prediction market is assigning very different odds to the timetable.
At 15:30 UTC on September 25, Polymarket’s contract asking whether Strait of Hormuz traffic would return to normal by September 30 priced “Yes” at just 0.25%, with $411,533 traded over the previous 24 hours.
The October 31 contract was at 8.5% on $67,145 of 24-hour volume. Later Friday, Polymarket was still displaying the September contract below 1% and the October market at roughly 8%.
The contracts use a specific definition of “normal”: IMF PortWatch must publish a seven-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls through Hormuz before the relevant deadline.
That makes the prediction-market question much stricter than whether Iran announces an agreement or allows several tankers through. Traders are betting on restored traffic, not simply a diplomatic headline.
The Saudi Bypass Gets Much Better Odds
The contrast with Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline is striking.
At the same 15:30 UTC Polymarket read, the contract asking whether the pipeline would restart by October 31 was priced at 75.4% “Yes.” The line gives Saudi Arabia a route from its eastern oil fields to the Red Sea that avoids Hormuz entirely.
That alternative has already mattered for crude pricing. FinanceFeeds reported on September 18 that Brent fell toward $102 as Saudi Arabia moved to restore part of the damaged East-West Pipeline.
Reuters subsequently reported on September 22 that pumping had restarted at a reduced rate, although full capacity could take several more weeks to restore.
One Market Trades the Headline, the Other Trades the Deadline
The two markets are answering different questions.
Oil futures have to react immediately to changes in the probability of war, supply disruption and diplomacy. That is why Brent moved sharply through Thursday, then slipped again on Friday as traders weighed the possibility of a U.S.-Iran truce.
Polymarket traders are being asked something narrower: will shipping actually return to a defined level by a fixed date?
On that question, September 30 is effectively priced out. Even October 31 remains a low-probability outcome.
The futures market therefore sees enough value in the diplomatic channel to move billions of dollars of crude exposure around each new report. The prediction market is saying something more cautious: talks can happen, a framework can emerge and prices can move, while normal Hormuz traffic can still remain a long way off.
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