We have yet to play a down in Week 3 and those results and injury reports (sorry, Giants’ fans) will be helpful, but the opening lines are out for Week 4 and there is certainly value available to bettors. Let’s take a ride through the slate and offer a quick thought or two on each game.
Thursday, October 1
Pittsburgh Steelers (-134) vs. Cleveland Browns (+114)
Spread: Steelers -2.5 Total: 37.5
The Browns won at home last season 13-6 against the Steelers. Neither team is better on offense this season…and each may be worse. Expect each side to try and control the ball and limit possessions. Lean to the UNDER 37.5.
Sunday, October 4
Indianapolis Colts (-230) vs. Washington Commanders (+190)
Spread: Colts -4.5 Total: 46.5
It will be week 2 with Marcus Mariota under center in place of the injured Jayden Daniels. That should translate to a more efficient offense. The Commanders stay within the number IF Jacory Croskey-Merritt can take advantage of a Colts’ defense that has been unable to slow the run in their first two games.
Los Angeles Rams (-152) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+128)
Spread: Rams -3 Total: 46.5
The Eagles have won the last two meetings between these teams each by a touchdown or less. In each of the two, the Rams grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory. The Eagles’ offense remains a definite work in progress. They just can’t establish the run. Lay the points with Aaron Donald and the Rams on the road.
New York Jets (+160) vs. Chicago Bears (-190)
Spread: Bears -3.5 Total: 43.5
Not sure who will be under center for the Bears. Minues Caleb Williams it is difficult to imagine the Bears scoring as quickly or as often as Ben Johnson anticipated just a couple of weeks ago. The lean is to the Total UNDER 43.5 as the Jets can score but prefer to do so with sustained, time-consuming drives.
Tennessee Titans (+500) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-700)
Spread: Ravens -10.5 Total: 44.5
Baltimore will be back from its date with Dallas in Rio and may be a bit sluggish, but how does Tennessee score? The spread is too big for what may be a fatigued Baltimore so the Game Total UNDER 44.5 is the play.
Why the Jaguars are the easy pick vs. the Patriots
Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick break down the Patiots vs. Jaguars, explaining why Jacksonville is the smart pick to cover. Plus, concerns grow around Drake Maye’s recent struggles and the Patriots’ offense.
Dallas Cowboys (+124) vs. Houston Texans (-146)
Spread: Texans -2.5 Total: 47.5
Yes, Dallas will have just played in Rio. If we believe there could be some fatigue, the play is the Game Total UNDER. C.J. Stroud has been pedestrian again to start this season so a sprinkle on the Cowboys to cover is understandable.
New England Patriots (+215) vs. Buffalo Bills (-260)
Spread: Bills -5.5 Total: 50.5
These teams scored a combined 66 points last December and the Bills’ offense looks better this season. Expect punters to have a light day. Take the Game Total OVER what is an acknowledged big number. Enjoy that sweat!
Arizona Cardinals (+116) vs. New York Giants (-136)
Spread: Giants -2.5 Total: 43.5
A long flight for the Cards but having just witnessed the Jameis Winston experience on Monday Night, it is difficult to lay the points. Take the points and roll with Jeremiyah Love and the Cards.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+122) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-144)
Spread: Bengals -2.5 Total: 50.5
The Jaguars can pile up points, but so can their opponents. Recommended play is the hometown Bengals ML with a lean towards the Game Total OVER 50.5.
Green Bay Packers (-112) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-104)
Spread: Packers -1.5 Total: 45.5
Should the Packers in their current form be favored on the road against anyone? Neither team’s offense has been consistent. Lean to the UNDER but more in love with Baker Mayfield finding a way in front of the home crowd to cover the number.
Take Bengals to shut down shaky Steelers offense
Trysa Krick and Vaughn Dalzell preview and AFC North matchup in Week 3 with the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Cincinnati Bengals as the Steelers offense looks rough after two games with Aaron Rodgers.
Miami Dolphins (+420) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-560)
Spread: Vikings -10.5 Total: 43.5
The play would actually be the Dolphins’ Team Total UNDER once that number is published assuming it is north of 14.5. Not sure the Spread or Total can be trusted without info on the availability of Kyler Murray.
Denver Broncos (+172) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-205)
Spread: 49ers -3.5 Total: 46.5
Two stingy defenses and two conservative offenses mean any points will be the result of long, sustained, time-consuming drives. Take the Total UNDER 46.5.
Kansas City Chiefs (-240) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+198)
Spread: Chiefs -5.5 Total: 45.5
The OVER has gone 1-4 in the last 5 meetings between these AFC West rivals with the Chiefs winning three of the five outright. This year, both teams seem to be better on both sides of the ball. Expect another rock fight. Lean to the Game Total UNDER 45.5.
Los Angeles Chargers (+275) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-340)
Spread: Seahawks -7 Total: 43.5
Sam Darnold may play in Week 3 so expect him to be a go for Week 4. That allows us to expect that Seattle will score against LA. No such expectations for the Chargers in front of the 12th Man. The play is the Seahawks’ Team Total OVER with a little pizza money on the home team to cover that number.
Detroit Lions (-138) vs. Carolina Panthers (+118)
Spread: Lions -2.5 Total: 49.5
Bryce Young is looking more and more the part of an NFL quarterback. The Panthers’ offense has been a threat to date this season. Jared Goff will be outdoors but in Charlotte where the temps mean he will thrive. Expect points in this one. It will be a sweat, but the OVER is definitely in play.
Monday, October 5
Atlanta Falcons (+160) vs. New Orleans Saints (-190)
Spread: Saints -3.5 Total: 45.5
Will probably be a game featuring two desperate teams. Makes sense most often in such situations to take the home team and while laying three points would be better than the published 3.5, we will lay the points and take the Saints who look far more organized and together on both sides of the ball.
As always, the numbers you like are worth playing today. If the sharp money agrees, you’ll see the number increase in value as the next week and a half unfolds. Until then, enjoy Week 3 of the NFL season.
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